Levered free cash flow is in the top 5% of all stocks globally
FinancialsAltman Z-Score: grey zone
Interpretations4 currently firing — 1 · 3
What this company is and how it runs — written from structure, not news.
Nature view
Shanxi Lu'an mines deep anthracite seams in Shanxi Province where methane concentrations are high enough to cause explosions, so the company must continuously drain gas from the rock before miners can cut coal — and that same drained gas is piped directly into China National Petroleum Corporation's network as sellable natural gas, meaning the safety system and the second revenue line share the same underground bores. Because power plants and Hebei steel mills have boilers and blast furnaces physically calibrated to this coal's specific heat output and ash profile, switching to a different supplier would require months of combustion testing or metallurgical requalification, which keeps buyers tied to Lu'an even when other coal is available. The speed at which coal can be extracted is set not by demand or labour but by underground gas concentration ceilings — ventilation and degassing capacity is the hard ceiling — and digging deeper compounds the problem because each new level generates disproportionately more methane that must be cleared before mining can proceed. If Beijing's carbon-neutrality policy forces the mine to curtail or close, both revenue lines collapse together rather than in sequence, because the gas can only be captured from a mine that is actively operating.
How does this company make money?
The company earns money in two ways from the same underground formation. It sells thermal coal by the ton to state-owned utilities and steel producers through a mix of spot contracts and annual supply agreements. Separately, it sells the methane gas drained from those same seams to China National Petroleum Corporation, which pays based on the volume in cubic meters and the energy content of the gas delivered to its pipeline network.
What makes this company hard to replace?
Power plants that buy this coal have boiler systems physically calibrated to Shanxi anthracite's specific heat output and ash content. Switching to a different coal supplier means months of combustion testing and efficiency adjustment before the boilers run cleanly again — that is a costly, time-consuming process no utility wants to start. Steel producers in Hebei Province face the same problem: their coking blends are built around specific Shanxi anthracite grades, and swapping in a different coal requires full metallurgical requalification of the blend before it can safely go into a blast furnace.
What limits this company?
Regulators set hard ceilings on how much methane can be in the air underground before work must stop, and those ceilings cap how fast coal can be cut — no matter how high coal prices go or how many workers are available. Going deeper makes this worse, not better: each new level of the mine produces far more methane than the one above it, so the degassing system has to grow faster than the coal output does.
What does this company depend on?
The company cannot operate without five things it does not fully control: the underground ventilation systems that keep methane at safe levels; China Railway Corporation's Daqin railway line, which is the route coal takes to reach customers; Shanxi Provincial mining permits, which are the legal permission to dig at all; industrial water treatment systems that keep the mine from flooding; and imported longwall mining equipment from German or Japanese manufacturers, which is what actually cuts the coal at depth.
Who depends on this company?
Shanxi Electric Power Company's coal-fired plants rely on this supply to keep the regional electricity grid running — a fuel shortage there would ripple out to households and industry across the region. Steel producers in Hebei Province use specific grades of Shanxi anthracite in their coking process, and changing supplier would require months of metallurgical retesting. China National Coal Group uses Shanxi anthracite to blend with lower-grade coal for export contracts, so losing this source would degrade the quality of coal it can sell internationally.
How does this company scale?
Production can grow by developing additional longwall panels across other seams in the same geological basin, which is a relatively straightforward physical expansion. What does not scale easily is the gas and ventilation management underneath: every new level dug deeper generates disproportionately more methane, demands more complex extraction systems, and cannot be automated or handed off to another company — that work stays a hard engineering constraint no matter how much the surface operation expands.
What external forces can significantly affect this company?
China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 means national policy is pointed toward reducing coal capacity, and that pressure arrives regardless of how efficiently this particular mine runs. Beijing's air quality rules can restrict coal transport during pollution alerts, interrupting deliveries even when the mine is producing normally. In Shanxi Province, Yellow River water allocation limits how much water the mine can draw for dewatering operations — in drought years, that constraint tightens and could slow or halt underground work.
Where is this company structurally vulnerable?
If Beijing's carbon-neutrality policy or Shanxi Provincial regulators order the mine to cut underground coal capacity or close, the methane drainage system stops at the same moment — because it only works while the mine is active. That one regulatory decision would kill both the coal revenue and the China National Petroleum Corporation gas contract simultaneously, not one after the other.
Price is read as structure — trend, levels, range, peak and volatility drawn on the chart. It does not predict where price goes next.
1 interpretation currently present — each is a set of fired observations whose alignment reads as one structural pattern. Click an observation to see the numbers behind it.
Three observations describe the present configuration: the fast moving average sits below the slow moving average, the company has been profitable for three years, and cash-flow margin is elevated.
Reads
An interpretation is present only while every observation it reads stays fired (score ≥ 70). It describes what the aligned readings show — never a verdict, never a prediction.
What the company actually pays, and whether its own cash supports it.
Dividends view
Yield
1.26%Below 5Y avg (6.84%)
Annual Rate
CNY 0.19Paid annual
Payout Ratio
105.1%High
Payback Period
81.0 yr
Last Ex-Dividend
Jun 30, 2026
The reported statements, read against the company's own industry.
Financials view
Market Capitalization
45.98BCNY
vs all stocks (USD)
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Trailing P/E
39.41x
vs Thermal Coal peers
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Revenue (TTM)
28.12BCNY
vs all stocks (USD)
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Profit Margin
4.19%
vs Thermal Coal peers
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Beta
0.6510x
vs all stocks
Updated Jul 16, 2026
52-Week Change
39.03%
vs all stocks
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Market Capitalization
45.98BCNY
vs all stocks (USD)
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Enterprise Value
26.79BCNY
vs all stocks (USD)
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Trailing P/E
39.41x
vs Thermal Coal peers
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Gross Margin
36.66%
vs Thermal Coal peers
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Profit Margin
4.19%
vs Thermal Coal peers
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Operating Margin
11.86%
vs Thermal Coal peers
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Shares Outstanding
2.99BSharesUpdated Jul 16, 2026
Float Shares
1.65BSharesUpdated Jul 16, 2026
% Held by Insiders
63.35%
vs all stocks
Updated Jul 16, 2026
% Held by Institutions
10.74%
vs all stocks
52-Week Low
10.65CNYUpdated Jul 16, 2026
52-Week High
19.76CNYUpdated Jul 16, 2026
52-Week Change
39.03%
vs all stocks
Updated Jul 16, 2026
Beta
0.6510x
vs all stocks
Updated Jul 16, 2026
3 interpretations currently present — each is a set of fired observations whose alignment reads as one structural pattern. Click an observation to see the numbers behind it.
Three observations have aligned: retained earnings are a substantial share of total assets, the equity-to-assets ratio is elevated, and current-period dividend payments are a high share of net income (the dividend-payout-intensity observation scores in the upper portion of its 0–100% mapped range).
Reads
How is this stock valued?
High Retained Earnings With Profitability And Equity
Retained earnings are a large share of total assets; net income was positive in each of the last 5 fiscal years; shareholders' equity is in the upper part of its industry's equity-to-assets range.
Reads
Where is this company structurally exposed?
Down-Close Share With Multi-Year Earnings Decrease
Three observations have aligned in the down direction: the share of down-close weeks within the one-year lookback is high, the earnings-compression observation scores high, and the gross-profit-deterioration observation scores high.
Reads
An interpretation is present only while every observation it reads stays fired (score ≥ 70). It describes what the aligned readings show — never a verdict, never a prediction.
Shared structure with peers — never a ranking.
Relationships view
Structural observations derived from financial data, industry benchmarks, and supply chain position.