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Price Above Long-Run SMA Despite Earnings Decline

Price Above Long-Run SMA Despite Earnings Decline

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Use to find companies where this pattern is active.

MomentumRiskInterpretation type: Diagnostic

Price action shows the fast moving average sitting above the slow moving average — a configuration conventionally called a 'golden cross.' Meanwhile, net income decreased year-over-year over the trailing four years and total assets decreased year-over-year over the trailing four years. The price-side configuration sits alongside contracting line items on the income statement and balance sheet.

State

Apparent fast-above-slow SMA with structural earnings decline

Emergence

Price-side and balance-sheet observations point in opposite directions. The fast moving average sits above the slow moving average — a configuration conventionally read as bullish momentum — while net income has decreased year-over-year over the trailing four years and total assets have also decreased year-over-year.

Limits

This interpretation identifies a directional split between an SMA configuration and the directional trajectory of net income and total assets in the present. It does not predict price reversal, claim the SMA configuration will fail, attribute net-income changes to margin or revenue specifically, or assess whether the line-item declines will continue.

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Price Above Long-Run SMA Despite Earnings Decline
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net income decreased yoy 4y
sma cross classic
total assets decreased yoy 4y
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Explanation

This diagnostic clarifies a directional reading: Surface reading: Fast SMA above slow SMA — conventionally read as the 'golden cross' bullish pattern — suggests sustained upward price momentum. Structural reality: Net Income Decreased Year-Over-Year (4 years) indicates net income has fallen consistently. Total Assets Decreased Year-Over-Year (4 years) indicates the asset base has shrunk in parallel. The price-side configuration is occurring while these two line items have contracted. The combination reveals a price-side configuration disconnected from the directional trajectory of these two fundamental lines. The folklore name for the SMA configuration suggests a coming rally; this diagnostic does not endorse that framing.

Interpretation

Co-occurrence of a price-side SMA configuration reading with multi-year fundamental decrease counts.

Required Observations

Net Income Decreased Yoy 4y

Net income has decreased year-over-year across the most recent 4 fiscal years.

Sma Cross Classic

The fast simple moving average is positioned above the slow simple moving average.

Total Assets Decreased Yoy 4y

Total assets have decreased year-over-year across the most recent 4 fiscal years.

Related Interpretations

Declining With Price Stretched Below 1Y Mean

Price sits well below its one-year mean (in standard-deviation terms) while net income decreased year-over-year and total assets decreased year-over-year

Acquisition-Inflated Growth

Total assets growing on a compound basis but goodwill is a large share of assets and the most-recent annual current-asset and total-asset year-over-year reading is opposite of the long-run growth

Elevated Inventory and Working Capital Buildup

Inventory dominates the asset mix while the total asset base and the current-asset slice have both contracted year-over-year

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