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Three observations co-occur: ADX directional-movement asymmetry is elevated while the volume-price divergence reading is elevated over both the 1-year and 3-month windows. The combination records a directional-asymmetry reading alongside two windows of measured volume-price divergence; it does not identify market participants or attribute the divergence to any specific class.
State
ADX directional-movement asymmetry firing with volume-price divergence elevated over both 1-year and 3-month windows
Emergence
Three observations co-occur: ADX directional-movement asymmetry is elevated (smoothed +DI/-DI asymmetry over the lookback, direction-agnostic), the volume-price divergence reading over the trailing year is elevated, and the volume-price divergence reading over the trailing three months is also elevated. The configuration records a directional-movement-asymmetry reading alongside two windows of measured volume-price divergence; the diagnostic does not identify who is buying or selling, attribute the volume pattern to any participant class, or claim distribution is occurring. None of the three observation identifies direction.
Limits
This interpretation records co-occurring readings, not market-participant identification. None of the three observations measures institutional flow, retail flow, dark pool activity, or order-book composition. ADX is direction-agnostic — it scores the magnitude of directional-movement asymmetry, not which side prevailed. The 'volume-price divergence' observation records whether weekly volume changes have correlated with weekly price direction over the lookback window; the conventional 'accumulation vs distribution' framing maps a price-and-volume reading to a market-participant intent claim that the underlying formula cannot establish. Divergence readings can co-occur with elevated ADX for extended periods without leading to any specific price outcome.
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Explanation
This diagnostic records a co-occurrence of three readings: Sustained Directional-Movement Asymmetry (ADX) smooths the asymmetry between positive and negative directional movement over the lookback. A high score means directional movement has been lopsided; the observation does not record which side dominates. Volume-Price Divergence (1Y) records whether weekly volume changes have correlated with weekly price direction over the trailing year. An elevated score indicates the two have diverged. Volume-Price Divergence (3M) records the same kind of divergence over the trailing three months. The configuration places ADX directional-movement asymmetry alongside two windows of measured volume-price divergence. The conventional 'apparent accumulation vs structural distribution' framing maps this combination to a market-participant intent claim (institutional selling masked by rising price). The underlying formulas record only the directional-asymmetry reading and the divergence readings; they do not measure participant identity, intent, or order flow.
Interpretation
This interpretation records a co-occurrence of three observations, not market-participant identification. It does not predict trend failure, identify who is buying or selling, or attribute the divergence to any participant class.
Required Observations
Sustained Directional-Movement Asymmetry (ADX)
Movement in one direction has consistently outpaced the other over recent weeks, whichever direction that is.
Negative Correlation Between Weekly Closes And Weekly Volume
Over the last 52 weeks, weekly closes and weekly volumes have moved in opposite directions.
Negative Correlation Between Weekly Closes And Weekly Volume
Over the last 13 weeks, weekly closes and weekly volumes have moved in opposite directions.