Michael Mauboussin

Applying decision science to distinguish skill from luck in investing.

Who He Is

Michael Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He has also taught at Columbia Business School for decades. His research integrates insights from multiple disciplines, including psychology, biology, and complexity science, into investment thinking.

Mauboussin is known for his rigorous, analytical approach to understanding how markets work. His papers and books, including "More Than You Know" and "The Success Equation," have influenced how professional investors think about decision-making, skill, and luck.

He bridges theory and practice, publishing research that is both academically rigorous and practically applicable. His work has shaped thinking at leading investment firms worldwide.

Core Investment Philosophy

Mauboussin emphasizes process over outcomes. Good decisions can lead to bad outcomes due to luck, and bad decisions can lead to good outcomes for the same reason. Focusing on process quality rather than short-term results leads to better long-term performance.

He applies mental models from diverse fields to investment problems. Evolutionary biology, psychology, network theory—these illuminate market dynamics that purely financial analysis misses.

He rigorously distinguishes between skill and luck. Many outcomes investors attribute to skill are actually luck, and vice versa. Understanding this distinction prevents both overconfidence and underappreciation of genuine ability.

He values quantification and evidence over intuition and anecdote. Rigorous analysis tested against multiple frameworks produces better decisions than stories or gut feelings.

Patterns He Focuses On

• Base Rates — Mauboussin emphasizes starting with base rates: how often similar situations have occurred historically. This prevents overweighting specific narratives.
• Expectations Infrastructure — He analyzes what expectations are embedded in current prices. Understanding what is priced in helps identify genuine mispricings.
• Skill-Luck Continuum — He places outcomes on a spectrum from pure luck to pure skill. Understanding where an activity falls on this spectrum informs how to analyze performance.
• Competitive Advantage Period — He estimates how long companies can sustain excess returns. This "CAP" analysis reveals whether valuations are justified by fundamental durability.
• Return on Invested Capital — High and sustainable ROIC indicates competitive advantage. Mauboussin studies what drives ROIC and how long it can persist.
• Decision Quality — He evaluates decisions based on the information available at the time, not on outcomes. Process quality matters more than result quality.

Example Companies

Mauboussin's contribution is primarily conceptual rather than focused on individual stock picks. His frameworks help investors analyze any company more effectively.

Case Studies — His research often uses specific companies to illustrate concepts, such as competitive advantage analysis of consumer brands or ROIC decomposition of different business models.

Limitations and Criticisms

Mauboussin's academic approach may be too theoretical for some practitioners. Implementing his frameworks requires analytical sophistication that not all investors possess.

Multi-disciplinary thinking is demanding. Building genuine competence across multiple fields requires years of study most investors cannot commit.

Quantification has limits. Some important investment factors resist measurement, and over-reliance on numbers may miss qualitative insights.

His work focuses on process, but investors ultimately need good outcomes. Perfect process that consistently produces poor results is still problematic.

What Modern Investors Can Learn

• Focus on process — Good decisions, consistently applied, lead to good long-term results. Do not be distracted by short-term outcomes.
• Learn from multiple disciplines — Investment insights come from unexpected sources. Biology, psychology, and other fields illuminate market dynamics.
• Distinguish skill from luck — Not all success indicates skill, and not all failure indicates incompetence. Understand the role of randomness.
• Use base rates — Start with historical frequencies before incorporating specific details. Base rates anchor analysis.
• Analyze expectations — Understand what is priced into current valuations. Edge comes from being right when consensus is wrong.

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