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26-week high-low range is narrow relative to average close; current Bollinger Band width is narrow relative to its own recent distribution; 14-week cumulative true range is large relative to net displacement (oscillating but not expanding the outer envelope).
State
Narrow 26-week price range, narrow Bollinger Bands, and elevated Choppiness Index
Emergence
Three range-and-band readings line up: the 26-week high-low range is small relative to average price, current Bollinger Band width is narrow relative to its own recent distribution, and the 14-week Choppiness Index is high (cumulative true range large relative to net displacement — week-to-week movement adds up without expanding the outer envelope). The three readings come from different reference frames but all describe the same general configuration: meaningful intra-window movement without a widening outer range.
Limits
All three readings are present-state. None predicts breakout direction, magnitude, or timing. The Choppiness Index reading explicitly fires when there is significant week-to-week movement (oscillation) — it does not require a quiet flat tape; it requires that the oscillation cancel out at the outer-range level. The narrow-range observation is a high-low range / average close ratio, not standard-deviation volatility. Compression can resolve in either direction or persist for extended windows.
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Explanation
Three range-and-band readings co-occur: - Narrow Price Range 26w (volatility-contraction): 1 − (26-week high-low range) / (26-week average close). Range-based, not standard-deviation volatility. - Narrow Bollinger Bands (narrow-bollinger-bands): current Bollinger Band width small relative to its own recent distribution. - Choppiness Index (choppiness-standard): 14-week cumulative true range divided by net high-low displacement, on a log scale. High score = oscillating movement that cancels at the outer-range level (not necessarily quiet — explicitly meaningful week-to-week movement). The three describe a present configuration. They do not predict breakout direction or timing.
Interpretation
Co-occurrence of three range-and-band readings (narrow 26w range, narrow Bollinger Bands, elevated Choppiness Index). The third reading specifically requires meaningful week-to-week oscillation; the configuration is not 'quiet tape'. The formulas do not predict resolution.
Required Observations
Cumulative True Range Large Relative to Net Displacement (Choppiness Index)
Over 14 weeks the price has moved a great deal while ending near where it started.
Narrow Bollinger Bands (Compressed Volatility)
Bollinger Bands have contracted to a narrow width compared to recent history.
Narrow Price Range Relative to Average Close
Over the last 26 weeks the price has stayed within a narrow high-low range.