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26-week high-low range is narrow relative to average close; current Bollinger Band width is narrow relative to its own recent distribution; 14-week cumulative true range is large relative to net displacement (oscillating but not expanding the outer envelope).
State
Narrow 26-week price range, narrow Bollinger Bands, and elevated Choppiness Index
Emergence
Three range-and-band readings line up: the 26-week high-low range is small relative to average price, current Bollinger Band width is narrow relative to its own recent distribution, and the 14-week Choppiness Index is high (cumulative true range large relative to net displacement — week-to-week movement adds up without expanding the outer envelope). The three readings come from different reference frames but all describe the same general configuration: meaningful intra-window movement without a widening outer range.
Limits
All three readings are present-state. None predicts breakout direction, magnitude, or timing. The Choppiness Index reading explicitly fires when there is significant week-to-week movement (oscillation) — it does not require a quiet flat tape; it requires that the oscillation cancel out at the outer-range level. The narrow-range obs is a high-low range / average close ratio, not standard-deviation volatility. Compression can resolve in either direction or persist for extended windows.
Explanation
Three range-and-band readings co-occur: - Narrow Price Range 26w (volatility-contraction): 1 − (26-week high-low range) / (26-week average close). Range-based, not standard-deviation volatility. - Narrow Bollinger Bands (narrow-bollinger-bands): current Bollinger Band width small relative to its own recent distribution. - Choppiness Index (choppiness-standard): 14-week cumulative true range divided by net high-low displacement, on a log scale. High score = oscillating movement that cancels at the outer-range level (not necessarily quiet — explicitly meaningful week-to-week movement). The three describe a present configuration. They do not predict breakout direction or timing.
Interpretation
Co-occurrence of three range-and-band readings (narrow 26w range, narrow Bollinger Bands, elevated Choppiness Index). The third reading specifically requires meaningful week-to-week oscillation; the configuration is not 'quiet tape'. The formulas do not predict resolution.
Required Observations
Choppiness Standard
Cumulative weekly true range is large relative to net high-low displacement over 14 weeks
Narrow Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have contracted to a narrow width compared to recent history.
Volatility Contraction
Price has stayed within a tight high-low range relative to its average over the configured window.