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Three observations describe the current configuration: the weak-bounce composite is elevated, acute-decline markers are active, and drawdown from the prior peak is significant.
State
Weak bounce within severe decline
Emergence
A weak, low-volume bounce sits within a severe decline. The bounce composite is elevated (prior decline depth + partial retracement + weak recovery volume), acute-decline observations are active, and the stock remains far below its peak. The combination describes the current shape of the tape, not the bounce's outcome.
Limits
This interpretation identifies the current shape of the bounce, not its outcome. It does not claim the bounce will fail, predict further losses, or assess whether the recovery is genuine. The same structural pattern can resolve into continued decline or extended recovery; the observations record only the present configuration.
Explanation
Each observation is an independent reading of the decline and bounce: Weak Bounce After Sharp Decline (typeKey 'dead-cat-bounce') measures three quantities together over a 60-week window: how deep the prior decline was, how partial the subsequent bounce is, and how the bounce volume compares to the selloff volume. A high score means a steep prior decline with a partial, low-volume recovery — it does not predict whether the bounce will hold or fail. Recent Sharp Decline With Volume Surge and Volatility Expansion (typeKey 'falling-knife-warning') is a composite of four readings on the recent decline: drawdown depth from the 26-week high, accelerating 4-week velocity, volume above the 12-week baseline, and average true range expanding relative to prior periods. Active readings indicate the recent decline is structurally severe across all four dimensions. Drawdown From Peak (typeKey 'drawdown-from-peak-standard') records the percentage decline of the current close from the highest close in the lookback window. A significant drawdown provides context for how far the price sits below its recent peak. When all three are elevated, the configuration records a partial low-volume recovery within a recent sharp decline far below the prior peak. The reading is descriptive of the present geometry, not a forecast of what follows.
Interpretation
This interpretation identifies the present configuration, not a prediction. It does not claim the bounce will fail, guarantee further losses, or recommend action. The same configuration can resolve into continued decline or extended recovery.
Required Observations
Dead Cat Bounce
Composite of prior decline depth, partial retracement, and below-baseline recovery volume
Drawdown From Peak Standard
Percentage decline of current close from the highest close in the lookback window
Falling Knife Warning
Composite of rapid decline, elevated volume, and volatility expansion