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Three present-state observations co-occur: 14-period weekly RSI at or above 70, a within-60-week composite of three second-half-vs-first-half asymmetries (price move smaller, volatility lower, volume lower) firing, and 1-year annualized volatility in the upper portion of its mapped range. The configuration describes co-occurring readings; it does not predict whether the prior advance will continue, consolidate, or reverse.
State
14-period weekly RSI at or above 70, recent half of the 60-week window shows smaller price move, lower volatility, and lower volume than the earlier half, and 1-year annualized volatility is in the upper portion of its mapped range
Emergence
Three present-state observations co-occur. The 14-period weekly RSI sits at or above 70 — recent weekly gains have outpaced losses across the trailing window. Within a 60-week window, the recent segment's price move is smaller than the earlier segment, the recent half's weekly volatility is lower than the earlier half's, and the recent half's volume is lower than the earlier half's. Annualized weekly-return volatility over the trailing 52 weeks is in the upper portion of its mapped range. The configuration places an elevated RSI alongside the within-window asymmetry composite and elevated realized volatility.
Limits
This interpretation records co-occurring readings, not reversal prediction or trend-stage diagnosis. RSI ≥ 70 records only that recent weekly gains have outpaced losses; the streak may continue or end, and the obs makes no claim either way. The within-window asymmetry composite records geometric facts about the 60-week lookback (smaller recent price move, lower recent volatility, lower recent volume), not a measure of how much further the prior advance can extend. Annualized-volatility records realized dispersion of weekly returns and does not predict future variance. The combination can persist with continued advance, consolidate, or reverse; the obs do not establish which.
Explanation
Each observation is an independent present-state reading: 14-Period Weekly RSI ≥ 70 (typeKey 'rsi-1y') records that the 14-period Wilder RSI computed on weekly closes is at or above 70 over the trailing 52-week window. Conventionally called 'RSI overbought,' a name that suggests a coming reversal. The formula records only that recent weekly gains have outpaced losses; this interpretation makes no reversal claim. Recent Half of 60-Week Window: Smaller Price Move, Lower Volatility, Lower Volume is a within-window composite of three second-half-vs-first-half asymmetries: recent-segment price move smaller than the earlier segment, recent-half weekly volatility lower than the earlier-half, and recent-half volume lower than the earlier-half. The composite reads geometric facts about the 60-week lookback; it does not establish that the prior advance is in any specific stage. High Annualized Volatility of Weekly Returns (1Y) (typeKey 'annualized-vol-1y') is the annualized standard deviation of weekly log returns over the trailing 52 weeks. A high score means realized dispersion has been wide; the obs does not predict future variance. The configuration places an elevated RSI alongside the within-window asymmetry composite and elevated realized volatility. The conventional 'overbought + exhaustion' framing maps this combination to a coming-reversal claim; the underlying formulas record only the present-state readings.
Interpretation
This interpretation records a co-occurrence of three present-state observations, not a timing call or reversal prediction. It does not predict decline, guarantee reversal, or recommend action. The configuration can persist or resolve through consolidation.
Required Observations
Annualized Vol 1y
Weekly returns have shown unusually high dispersion (annualized volatility ≥ 70%) over the lookback window.
Rsi 1y
Recent weekly closes show gains consistently outpacing losses (RSI ≥ 70).
Trend Exhaustion
Recent half of a 60-week window shows smaller price move, lower volatility, and lower volume than the earlier half