CompanyGraph
Use to find companies where this pattern is active.
Three price-behavior observations have aligned: the ulcer index (drawdown depth and duration composite) is elevated, current drawdown from peak is significant, and 20-week annualized volatility is in the upper portion of its mapped range.
State
Ulcer index elevated, current drawdown from peak significant, 20-week annualized volatility elevated
Emergence
Three price-behavior observations align. The ulcer index (a composite of drawdown depth and duration over the lookback) is in the upper portion of its mapped range. Current drawdown from peak is significant — the close sits materially below the recent-window high. The 20-week annualized volatility is in the upper portion of its mapped range. The three readings describe the past-and-current price behavior on the downside, not a forecast.
Limits
This interpretation records three price-behavior observations at the most recent reporting period. It does not predict further decline, assess whether the drawdown is over, indicate recovery timing, or guarantee future risk levels. Past drawdown and volatility patterns do not establish future ones; periods of high realized volatility can collapse, periods of low realized volatility can spike.
Explanation
Each observation reads a different aspect of recent price behavior on the downside: Ulcer Index is a composite that combines drawdown depth and drawdown duration into one score over the lookback window. A high score means substantial drawdown over substantial time. It records past geometric experience, not forward risk. Drawdown from Peak measures the current close's proportional distance from the highest close in the recent window. A high score means the close is materially below the window high. Annualized Volatility (20-week) is the standard deviation of weekly returns over a 20-week window, annualized. A high score means recent realized volatility is in the upper portion of its mapped range. When all three align, the configuration describes a stock that has experienced significant downside variation and is currently at a meaningful distance from its peak — a past-and-current price-behavior observation, not a forward prediction.
Interpretation
This interpretation identifies past-and-current downside-variation observations. It does not predict further loss, assess investor suitability, or guarantee that the configuration will persist. Stocks with past drawdown experience can stabilize, recover, or decline further; the obs do not forecast direction.
Required Observations
Annualized Vol 20w
Weekly returns have shown unusually high dispersion (annualized volatility ≥ 70%) over the lookback window.
Drawdown From Peak Standard
Percentage decline of current close from the highest close in the lookback window
Ulcer Index
Downside volatility based on drawdown depth from recent highs