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Three signals indicate acute decline: falling knife warning is present, volume has reached climactic levels, and drawdown from peak is severe. Together these describe a dangerous technical situation with distress characteristics.
State
Falling knife warning
Emergence
Acute price decline with climactic volume. When falling knife indicators are present, volume has reached climactic levels, and drawdown from peak is severe, the stock is in acute decline with signs of distress. This describes a dangerous technical situation where trying to catch the bottom is historically risky.
Limits
This story identifies falling knife characteristics, not bottom prediction or recovery timing. It does not predict when decline will end, whether a bounce is imminent, or indicate when to buy. Falling knives can continue falling far longer than expected.
Explanation
Each signal represents an independent observation about the decline: Falling Knife Warning is a composite of four current stress markers: depth from the 26-week high, accelerating 4-week velocity, volume surging above the 12-week baseline, and average true range expanding relative to prior periods. It describes what is happening right now in the price tape; it does not predict whether more decline will follow. Volume Climax measures extreme volume spikes. Climactic volume during decline often indicates forced selling, capitulation, or panic—conditions where more decline can follow. Drawdown from Peak measures how far price has fallen from highs. Severe drawdown combined with other signals indicates a significant decline is underway. When all three align, they describe a falling knife — a situation in which the price tape currently shows acute decline, expanding volatility, and volume above baseline. The label is descriptive of the present state, not a forecast.
Interpretation
This story identifies falling knife characteristics, not bottom timing. It does not predict when decline will end, whether recovery is near, or indicate when to buy. The phrase 'don't catch a falling knife' exists because these situations often get worse before better.
Required Signals
Falling Knife Warning
Composite of rapid decline, selling pressure, and volatility expansion