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Price advance looks like buying, but volume-price divergence suggests otherwise. Trend strength is positive while volume-price divergence is negative over both one-year and three-month windows. The apparent accumulation may actually be distribution.
State
Apparent accumulation with structural distribution
Emergence
Price action suggests accumulation but volume-price divergence indicates distribution. When trend strength is positive but volume-price divergence over both one-year and three-month windows is negative, the apparent buying may be selling in disguise. Price rises while volume patterns diverge from price direction—a pattern surface price action obscures.
Limits
This story identifies structural discrepancy, not reversal prediction. It does not claim distribution will succeed in reversing price, predict timing, or assess who is buying or selling. Distribution patterns can persist during extended advances.
Explanation
This diagnostic clarifies a common misreading: Surface reading: Rising price with volume suggests institutional accumulation and bullish conviction. Structural reality: Trend Strength is positive—price is advancing. However, Volume-Price Divergence (1Y) is negative—volume patterns over the past year diverge from price direction. Volume-Price Divergence (3M) confirms this over the shorter window. The combination reveals that apparent accumulation (buying into strength) may actually be distribution (selling into strength) with price temporarily masking the flow.
Interpretation
This story identifies structural discrepancy between price action appearance and volume flow reality. It does not predict trend failure, recommend exits, or assess distribution impact. It clarifies that price and volume can tell different stories.
Required Signals
Trend Strength
Combined moving average separation and net price displacement